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尹海濤

上海交通大學(xué)安泰經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院副院長

EMBA課程教授

可再生能源發(fā)展趨勢

CGTN:

Let’s welcome professor YIN Hai Tao from Anti College of Economics and Management at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Professor YIN, great to have you on the show. We start by asking you what are the new trends that we are seeing in renewable energy development herein China.

請問尹海濤教授，中國可再生能源發(fā)展的新趨勢是什么？

Prof. YIN:

Thank you very much. I think there are two things that are going to happen in the future. First, we are going to see a very strong growth of renewable investment in China in the next five to ten years. We have already set up an ambitious goal for renewable development. According to the government documents, by 2030, more than 25% of the energy need in China should be fulfilled by non-fossil energy, and more particularly, the generation capacity of solar farms or wind farms is going to reach 1.2 billion KW. Therefore, in the next five to ten years, we are going to see a stronger growth of renewable investment, which is the first trend we are going to observe.

Second, if you ask what the most important challenge is for renewable development ten years ago, the answer would be: it is very expensive. But nowadays renewable energy is cheap. In the future, we must make sure that the electricity generated by solar farms and wind farms can be used by the industrial users or residential users. In other words, what’s more important in the future is to make sure we can integrate the renewable energy into the national grid. Thank you.

未來新能源發(fā)電的爆發(fā)性增長是具有確定性的。我認為將會出現(xiàn)兩種趨勢。第一，中國的新能源投資在未來的5到10年會有非常巨大的增長。目前我們已制定了非常明確的可再生能源發(fā)展目標。根據(jù)政府文件，截止2030年，中國25%以上的能源需求將由非化石能源來滿足，太陽能或風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠的發(fā)電能力將達到12億千瓦。因此，在未來的5到10年，我們會看到新能源方面的投資將更為強勁，這是第一個趨勢。

其次，新能源的發(fā)展，未來的主要挑戰(zhàn)是新能源電力的消納。在過去可再生能源發(fā)電非常昂貴，但是現(xiàn)在卻很便宜。在未來，我們必須確保光伏電站和風(fēng)電站發(fā)出的電力能夠被工業(yè)用戶或老百姓使用。換句話說，未來的主要挑戰(zhàn)是新能源電力的消納。

可再生能源是中國解決能源短缺問題的關(guān)鍵

CGTN:

That’s interesting. What role do you think renewable energy development to play in ensuring energy security and how effective is it in solving energy shortages?

您認為可再生能源發(fā)展對保障能源安全有何作用?對解決能源短缺問題有何效果?

Prof. YIN:

I think the role that renewable energy would play is very critical. Why is that the case? China is not very rich in energy reserves, and we don’t have much oil or natural gas. If we look at the data, about 70% of the petroleum oil consumed in China is imported from other countries. As for the natural gas, the number is between 40% to 50%. So, in the future if we want to get rid of our reliance on international importation of petroleum oil and natural gas, we don’t have many choices on the table. We have coal in China. But when we use more coal, we are going to have more concerns on global warming, on carbon emission. Basically, the only technologically feasible and commercially viable solution, for the time being, is renewable energy. Therefore, the rapid development of renewable energy is very critical to solve the energy shortage issue in China in the future.

發(fā)展新能源對解決中國近期的能源短缺問題至關(guān)重要。我這么說的原因在于，數(shù)據(jù)表明，中國的石油和天然氣儲存量并不大。以石油為例，中國消費的石油約有70%是從其他國家進口的，天然氣則是在40% - 50%，這也是中國能源安全的一個關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)。因此，在未來，若想擺脫對國際石油和天然氣進口的依賴，我們沒有太多的選擇。如果大量使用煤炭，會有碳排放、或者全球變暖的擔(dān)憂。因此，目前唯一在技術(shù)上可行、在商業(yè)上可行的解決方案是可再生能源。因此，發(fā)展新能源對解決中國近期的能源短缺問題至關(guān)重要。

實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展需要多重創(chuàng)新

CGTN:

Professor YIN, when we talk about this, may be the hardest thing that everyone can think of is how to balance among economic growth, environment conservation, and energy security, especially at a time when the world is faced with energy shortages. So, what are the key points that policy makers must take into consideration to achieve these goals?

說到這里，我們目前面臨的挑戰(zhàn)可能是如何在經(jīng)濟增長、環(huán)境保護和能源安全之間取得平衡，特別是在當(dāng)今世界面臨能源短缺的情況下。那么，要實現(xiàn)這些目標，政策制定者必須考慮的關(guān)鍵點是什么?

Prof. YIN:

I totally agree with you. It’s very important to achieve environmental protection and economic growth at the same time. It’s a critical challenge for human society. That is why we emphasized sustainable development so heavily during the last ten years and will continue to do so many years into the future. Achieving sustainable development is very difficult but it’s a future that everybody desires. We must make efforts. If you ask me for the answer to this challenge, the keyword is “Innovation”, not only technology innovation but also innovations of business models. I trust that if we unite together to make more innovations on technology and business models, we will have a more sustainable future.

同時實現(xiàn)社會發(fā)展，環(huán)境保護與經(jīng)濟增長確實至關(guān)重要，這也是對人類社會的重大挑戰(zhàn)，也是我們在過去十年和未來許多年強調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的原因。當(dāng)下全面實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展非常困難，但可持續(xù)發(fā)展是每個人都渴望的。面對此挑戰(zhàn)，最關(guān)鍵的就是創(chuàng)新。不僅僅是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，也要致力于商業(yè)模式和管理層面的創(chuàng)新。我相信，如果我們團結(jié)起來在技術(shù)上和商業(yè)模式上進行更多的創(chuàng)新，未來我們一定會實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。

面對新能源電力的消納挑戰(zhàn)，只能依靠創(chuàng)新

CGTN:

Professor YIN, in China’s 14th Five Year Plan, the country has vowed make quick progress and achieve a leap in quality development in the renewable energy industry, what do you think could be the key achievements in this regard?

在中國的“十四五”規(guī)劃中，國家承諾在可再生能源行業(yè)實現(xiàn)質(zhì)的飛躍，您認為這方面的關(guān)鍵成就可能是什么?

Prof. YIN:

For this question, I want to get back to a point I mentioned earlier, which is, the critical challenge in the next few years is to integrate the renewable generation into the national grid. And for that purpose, we must do innovation.

The first innovation is technological innovation. To make sure a large-scale integration of renewable energy, we must rely on technology innovation, such as energy storage, smart grid technology, and hydrogen technology. What’s more, we need do some innovation on market trading system, and how we trade electricity on the grid system.

The second one is innovation on business models. Recently, we focused on distributed renewable generation instead of large-scale concentrated renewable generation. We see more examples of combining renewable generation with livestock farming, fishery industry and many others.

If we can achieve these two innovations, I am sure that we will have a high quality of renewable development in the future.

關(guān)于這個問題，我想回到我之前提到的一點，未來的主要挑戰(zhàn)是新能源電力的消納。提升新能源消納能力只能依靠創(chuàng)新。不只是技術(shù)上面的創(chuàng)新（例如儲能和智能電網(wǎng)），還包括商業(yè)模式和管理層面的創(chuàng)新（例如微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化、漁光互補等分布式利用）。如果我們能做到這兩方面的創(chuàng)新，我相信我們會實現(xiàn)可再生能源的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展。

來源：CGTN

中英文編輯：胥琦

責(zé)任編輯：王琪

審核：徐靜