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人工智能技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展，被認(rèn)為是推動全球經(jīng)濟重塑、產(chǎn)生數(shù)萬億美元經(jīng)濟價值的主要動力。而且技術(shù)的快速迭代也預(yù)示著，我們所見到的生成式AI的力量僅僅初見端倪，未來將可能發(fā)生更有顛覆性的技術(shù)變革。這場技術(shù)革命究竟將造福于誰？哪些群體可能面臨落后的風(fēng)險？人類應(yīng)當(dāng)如何通過政策制定和倫理框架來確保這項技術(shù)能夠為全社會帶來利益？

BI挪威商學(xué)院的兩位學(xué)生Philipp Athanasiadis和Johannes Javorsky深入剖析了AI的雙面效應(yīng)。一方面，AI對于生產(chǎn)力的提升預(yù)示著巨大的經(jīng)濟潛力；另一方面，它的快速進(jìn)步也帶來了對社會結(jié)構(gòu)、就業(yè)安全以及人類價值觀的挑戰(zhàn)。

根據(jù)麥肯錫的報告《生成式AI的經(jīng)濟影響:下一個生產(chǎn)力前沿》(The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier)，科技行業(yè)已經(jīng)描繪出一個由AI驅(qū)動的經(jīng)濟奇跡的烏托邦式未來。不過，商業(yè)的繁榮并不自動等同于社會福祉的提升。

聯(lián)合國《世界幸福報告》指出，幸福感并非直接由GDP驅(qū)動，而是更多地受到非物質(zhì)因素的影響。越來越多的國家開始意識到，人民的幸福感并非僅由GDP決定，還包括健康、安全、自由和穩(wěn)定等因素。因此，在巨大的經(jīng)濟潛力之下，可能隨之而來的對就業(yè)、社會公平等方面的負(fù)面影響，將會成為技術(shù)發(fā)展的高昂代價。

人類一部分的幸福感，來自于他在生活中致力于一些有意義的事情。渴望達(dá)到一個目標(biāo)，是一個人實現(xiàn)自我的重要方式，也是許多人生活的基礎(chǔ)。但若是這些能帶來意義感的事情被AI取代了呢？全球范圍內(nèi)，AI將加深富裕國家與貧窮國家之間的差距。發(fā)達(dá)國家利用新技術(shù)獲取更多收益，而發(fā)展中國家則可能進(jìn)一步落后。此外，AI對低技能工人的影響最大，甚至還可能取代一些新興的工作防偽，從而加劇了社會分層。

甚至還有不少擔(dān)憂來自于社交媒體信息的不可控。社交媒體上的信息通道大多受算法控制，這影響了我們所見、所感、所想。已經(jīng)有部分研究研究表明，AI最大的危險之一是為了經(jīng)濟利益或政治優(yōu)勢而被操縱，這不得不被納入監(jiān)管的考量。

當(dāng)然，AI在各種應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域都有積極的一面。它提高了天氣預(yù)報的準(zhǔn)確性，輔助醫(yī)生進(jìn)行診斷，支持空中交通管制員確保安全的飛行路線……在這些領(lǐng)域，AI都起到了補充人類技能的輔助作用，而非取代他們。監(jiān)管者面臨的挑戰(zhàn)在于如何界定AI輔助人類的界限，而不是奪走人類的工作。畢竟，AI存在的意義不是取代我們，而是支持我們。

盡管AI有可能帶來經(jīng)濟繁榮，但它也可能給社會福祉、就業(yè)市場和民主制度帶來負(fù)面影響。為了確保AI能為全社會帶來利益，我們需要政策制定者、科技公司以及整個社會共同參與，制定出一套全面的倫理框架和監(jiān)管措施。只有這樣，我們才能確保AI技術(shù)的發(fā)展不僅能夠創(chuàng)造經(jīng)濟價值，而且能夠提升人類的幸福和社會福祉。

原文：Generative AI: A bright future ahead of us – but for whom?，來自BI Business Review，作者：Philipp Athanasiadis（MSc student at BI）與Johannes Javorsky（MSc student at BI）

The AI revolution may completely reshape the global economy and add trillions of dollars in value through increased productivity. But who stands to gain the most? And who might be left behind?

Unparalleled efficiency, accelerated research and innovation, and widespread technical automation will transform how businesses create value.

At the same time, the speed at which this technology advances hints that this is only the beginning of generative AI’s true power.

So, what does this mean for you and me?

Measuring well-being

In a report published last year, McKinsey refers to generative AI as “the next productivity frontier”. Indeed, the tech industry has painted a utopian future of incredible economic potential that will be powered by AI.

However, businesses thriving does not automatically translate to improving well-being in society. Acknowledging this, more and more countries have recently started assessing their success by the happiness of their people. So, what makes us happy?

According to the UN’s World Happiness Report, research has shown that happiness is not directly driven by GDP, but rather measured by factors such as health, safety, freedom, and stability.

It is evident that the AI revolution will not just bring economic potential but also impact other areas of our life. With its current direction, AI will disrupt employment, increase inequality, and even threaten democracy – a high price to pay for increased profits of the narrow elite.

The purpose of it all

Many people strive to work on something meaningful, something bigger than themselves. They aspire to reach a feeling of purpose and contribute to the greater good. Not only is this the foundation for one’s self-realization, but also the basis of life.

But what if AI takes that away from you?

Big-tech firms promise us heaven on earth, with AI only replacing undesirable jobs and ensuring wealth and comfort for everyone. But the reality will look harshly different.

With AI impacting 40% of jobs globally, more than 60% of employees in developed countries will be affected, according to a recent analysis from the IMF. Further, advanced economies will most likely face the most severe impact on their labor markets, with higher unemployment and lower wages being the possible results of today’s rather na?ve handling of AI.

AI: leading to equally unequal societies

Globally, AI will drive the wedge between rich and poor countries even deeper. As primarily developed countries will leverage this new technology, developing countries will fall even further behind. Moreover, a lack of human capital and labor market policies in developing economies poses a key challenge in dealing with the impact of AI.

Unregulated AI will undoubtedly transform the labor market fundamentally. The critical aspect is that AI will affect low-skilled workers the most and thus widen the social gap, leading to a social divide.

Even worse, in the foreseeable future, AI will also replace newly created jobs. Consequently, unregulated AI not only divides societies globally but also pushes people to the edge of society.

Democracy in the age of AI

Strong institutions are part of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and represent the foundation of our society as we know it today.

However, society has changed a lot in recent years, and the rise of AI threatens to undermine freedom, societal cohesion, and democracy. With most information nowadays being consumed through social media, there is reason to be worried.

The most used information channels are controlled by algorithms that impact what we see, feel, and think. They can influence elections, spread misinformation through deep-fakes, and censor content that big-tech CEOs deem unfavorable. Several studies have indicated that one of the most pressing dangers of AI is manipulation for economic gain or political advantage.

Is AI just bad?

Of course, AI can have a positive impact in various areas of applications. These include enhancing the accuracy of weather forecasts while simultaneously consuming less time and energy, aiding doctors in their diagnoses, or supporting air traffic controllers in securing safe flight routes.

However, these are areas where AI complements human skills and does not replace them.

It is a thin line for regulators to shape technological adoption and define these areas where AI aids humans in fulfilling their purpose rather than taking it away. After all, AI is not here to replace but to support us.

Regulating a technological revolution

As a society, we depend on policymakers to guide the design and implementation of these technologies.

However, with experts questioning institutions’ ability to govern this technology, we must now require responsibility and accountability from those at the core of this revolution: the big tech industry.

（This essay is the winner of BI's Opinion Essay Competition for the Spring 2024 semester. ）

Authors |

Philipp Athanasiadis（MSc student at BI）

Johannes Javorsky（MSc student at BI）

Link |

https://www.bi.edu/research/business-review/articles/2024/04/generative-ai-a-bright-future-ahead-of-us--but-for-whom/

References |

①Arogyaswamy, B. (2020). Big Tech and societal sustainability: An ethical framework. AI & SOCIETY, 35(4), 829-840. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-020-00956-6

②Grybauskas, A., Stefanini, A., & Ghobakhloo, M. (2022). Social Sustainability in the age of Digitalization: A systematic literature review on the Social Implications of Industry 4.0. Technology in Society, 70, 101997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.101997

③Ditlev-Simonsen, C. D. (2022). A guide to sustainable corporate responsibility: From theory to action. Palgrave Macmillan.

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