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螞蟻集團(tuán)的金融創(chuàng)新不僅需要有利于股票市場(chǎng)投資者，還需要有利于整個(gè)社會(huì)。

拉至底部，閱讀英文原文

螞蟻科技集團(tuán)股份有限公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“螞蟻集團(tuán)”），一家以數(shù)字支付加上為其它金融服務(wù)提供數(shù)字化超市而聞名的中國(guó)金融科技企業(yè)集團(tuán)，遇到了監(jiān)管挫折。原定于11月5日在港交所和上交所的上市計(jì)劃被中國(guó)監(jiān)管部門暫緩。螞蟻控股股東馬云最近一次演講對(duì)金融監(jiān)管方式提出批評(píng)，在他看來(lái)監(jiān)管對(duì)金融科技創(chuàng)新缺乏理解和支持。此次上市叫停顯示了監(jiān)管的權(quán)威、表達(dá)了對(duì)螞蟻的不滿，也算是對(duì)馬云演講的回應(yīng)。

此次IPO堪稱歷史上規(guī)模最大，超過(guò)了此前IPO紀(jì)錄保持者沙特阿美（去年12月募資294億美元）的規(guī)模，也超過(guò)了螞蟻的大哥阿里巴巴（2014年在紐約證券交易所上市籌集250億美元）的規(guī)模。根據(jù)螞蟻集團(tuán)的IPO招股說(shuō)明書，公司計(jì)劃募資344億美元（約占公司股份的11%）。螞蟻集團(tuán)的總市值預(yù)計(jì)為3,134億美元，將位列中國(guó)上市公司第三，世界排名十二，超過(guò)目前全球市值最高的上市銀行摩根大通。

如果重啟IPO，螞蟻還會(huì)打破世界紀(jì)錄嗎？如果暫緩上市伴隨著對(duì)其商業(yè)活動(dòng)新的監(jiān)管限制，螞蟻的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值注定會(huì)受到負(fù)面影響。但螞蟻在其短暫的公司發(fā)展歷程中多次展現(xiàn)出創(chuàng)造力和韌性。憑借其廣受歡迎的數(shù)字支付App，螞蟻已經(jīng)成功擴(kuò)展到理財(cái)、保險(xiǎn)等一系列金融服務(wù)領(lǐng)域。除了目前各項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)的增長(zhǎng)潛力，螞蟻還有許多其他增長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)。

例如，螞蟻基于大數(shù)據(jù)與程序可以為數(shù)字支付用戶生成有效的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)分，包括但不限于那些經(jīng)常在線購(gòu)物或銷售的用戶。如果能夠獲得監(jiān)管部門批準(zhǔn)的話，信用評(píng)分可以成為一項(xiàng)獨(dú)立的新業(yè)務(wù)，形成為供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)、房東、銀行和潛在雇主提供服務(wù)的創(chuàng)收項(xiàng)目。

海外擴(kuò)張是另一個(gè)潛在的增長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域。與其在國(guó)內(nèi)數(shù)字金融領(lǐng)域的龍頭主導(dǎo)地位相比，它的海外業(yè)務(wù)確實(shí)只是“小螞蟻”。以數(shù)字支付為例，支付寶海外的使用量只是其國(guó)內(nèi)的0.5%。然而，憑借其強(qiáng)大的算法和專業(yè)技術(shù)，螞蟻應(yīng)該有能力在許多其他國(guó)家尋求到市場(chǎng)需求，特別是如果它能夠贏得海外監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的信任，并借力阿里巴巴的國(guó)際擴(kuò)張。

螞蟻集團(tuán)的發(fā)展也面臨著許多阻力。首先，美國(guó)和印度最近對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)的運(yùn)作與出口限制提醒人們，中國(guó)企業(yè)的海外發(fā)展最終是否成功可能取決于它無(wú)法控制的地緣政治動(dòng)態(tài)。第二，或許更重要的是，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)螞蟻集團(tuán)能夠在多大程度上發(fā)展壯大已有業(yè)務(wù)以及獲取新業(yè)務(wù)的資格產(chǎn)生巨大影響。類似于美國(guó)和歐盟監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)待本國(guó)大型科技公司一樣，中國(guó)監(jiān)管者也擔(dān)心螞蟻集團(tuán)在濫用其在數(shù)字支付領(lǐng)域近乎壟斷的地位，以及它給金融穩(wěn)定和數(shù)據(jù)隱私帶來(lái)的不可預(yù)見的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

這些擔(dān)憂必須與螞蟻和金融科技創(chuàng)新給社會(huì)帶來(lái)的價(jià)值放在一起權(quán)衡。金融創(chuàng)新是否一定為社會(huì)造福不能泛泛而談，因?yàn)橛幸恍﹦?chuàng)新可能拉大“技術(shù)富人”和“技術(shù)窮人”之間的差距。不過(guò)螞蟻的實(shí)踐表明，它是一股推動(dòng)包容性發(fā)展的力量。螞蟻已經(jīng)使數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的小微企業(yè)獲得了*，這些企業(yè)此前因缺乏可抵押資產(chǎn)而無(wú)法*，其中包括了處于中國(guó)較貧窮、邊緣地區(qū)的企業(yè)。螞蟻集團(tuán)還促進(jìn)創(chuàng)業(yè)家中的性別平等。在線下創(chuàng)業(yè)者中，男性的比例是女性的三倍，而線上創(chuàng)業(yè)者的性別幾乎是平等的，螞蟻的*項(xiàng)目基于業(yè)績(jī)、不分性別，間接幫助了大量的女性企業(yè)家們。

螞蟻其實(shí)也是中國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革進(jìn)程中的一位無(wú)名英雄。在任何經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，利率和匯率都可能是最重要的兩個(gè)金融價(jià)格。在金融科技革命之前，中國(guó)對(duì)儲(chǔ)戶支付的利率有一個(gè)上限（同時(shí)對(duì)*利率設(shè)定下限）。這意味著，家庭儲(chǔ)蓄的回報(bào)率被人為壓低至市場(chǎng)利率以下。有人說(shuō)利率被壓低可能是中國(guó)高儲(chǔ)蓄的原因之一（在低利率背景下需要更多的儲(chǔ)蓄才能達(dá)到一個(gè)給定的金額目標(biāo)），也間接增加了經(jīng)常賬戶的順差。盡管以家庭儲(chǔ)蓄支付市場(chǎng)利率將提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率，并有可能減少中國(guó)的外部失衡，但是改革以實(shí)現(xiàn)這一結(jié)果很難，因?yàn)樯虡I(yè)銀行從低存款利率中受益從而缺乏動(dòng)力去改變，而利率管制也阻止個(gè)別銀行自行偏離現(xiàn)狀。

2013年6月，螞蟻（當(dāng)時(shí)的“阿里金融”）推出了余額寶，改變了這一切。余額寶是一種使用門檻低、便捷靈活而又支付市場(chǎng)利率的貨幣市場(chǎng)基金。沒有申購(gòu)費(fèi)或贖回費(fèi)，而且投資起點(diǎn)低（1元門檻），這是成千上萬(wàn)的普通家庭從未享受過(guò)的金融服務(wù)，也讓他們意識(shí)到并非只能容忍銀行的低利率。在我與斯坦福大學(xué)Greg Buchak和北京大學(xué)胡佳胤的共同研究中，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)余額寶通過(guò)給銀行施加競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力，迫使它們先后推出了投資門檻低、手續(xù)費(fèi)低、而又支付市場(chǎng)利率的產(chǎn)品，實(shí)際上撬動(dòng)了或助推了全國(guó)性的利率市場(chǎng)化改革。

如今，普通中國(guó)消費(fèi)者享受的銀行服務(wù)的質(zhì)量和范圍，在這場(chǎng)中國(guó)金融服務(wù)無(wú)聲革命之前是很難想象的。螞蟻集團(tuán)悄無(wú)聲息間接幫助推動(dòng)了這場(chǎng)革命。除了對(duì)銀行施加有益的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力之外，螞蟻集團(tuán)還幫助許多銀行擴(kuò)大自己的業(yè)務(wù)，并通過(guò)合作的聯(lián)合*協(xié)議提高效率。這些安排結(jié)合了銀行的低資金成本優(yōu)勢(shì)和螞蟻集團(tuán)數(shù)據(jù)和算法驅(qū)動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本控制優(yōu)勢(shì)。通過(guò)一百多家合作伙伴，螞蟻集團(tuán)發(fā)現(xiàn)并介紹給銀行許多有著良好信用的借款人，這些借款人以前銀行是看不到的或者服務(wù)起來(lái)成本太貴。有意思的是，這些聯(lián)合*的違約率通常低于銀行自己的*項(xiàng)目。

螞蟻發(fā)展帶來(lái)的大部分正面社會(huì)效益是公司盈利活動(dòng)的副產(chǎn)品。這不是壞事情，因?yàn)樗惯@些社會(huì)效益具有可持續(xù)性。螞蟻集團(tuán)的一大業(yè)務(wù)是個(gè)人*（或消費(fèi)貸），它可以幫助家庭更好地應(yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)的收入或支出沖擊，比如家庭成員疾病或教育的支出。有一種擔(dān)憂是，此類*也可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致某些不具備金融知識(shí)或能力的人承擔(dān)過(guò)多的債務(wù)，或者加劇他們的“行為偏見”，從而造成社會(huì)不穩(wěn)定。

然而，這些擔(dān)憂往往沒有系統(tǒng)的證據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)。因此，在這一領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行更多的研究和評(píng)估將有助于確保螞蟻和整體的金融科技創(chuàng)新，以一種不僅有利于買螞蟻股票的投資者，而且有利于整個(gè)社會(huì)的方式取得進(jìn)展。

Use Ant Group’s IPO Suspension to Reflect on Its Social and Market Valuations

Shang-Jin Wei

Editor-in-chiefofFudanFinancialReview

ProfessorofFinance and Ecnomics ofColumbiaUniversity

FormerChiefEconomistof Asian Development Bank

Ant Group, a Chinese FinTech conglomerate known for its digital payment plus a digital supermarket for other financial services, has met a regulatory setback - its simultaneous public listing on the Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Exchanges originally scheduled for November 5 has just been suspended by Chinese regulators. The suspension is an assertion of authority and an expression of unhappiness by the regulators, possibly in response to a recent speech by Jack Ma, Ant’s controlling shareholder, who was critical of financial regulations that in his mind show insufficient understanding of and insufficient support for FinTech innovation.

The IPO was to be the largest in history, surpassing that of the previous IPO record holder Saudi Aramco ($29.4 billion when first listed last December), and Ant’s first cousin Alibaba ($25 billion on its New York Stock Exchange debut in 2014). Based on Ant Group’s IPO prospectus, the company aims to raise $34.4 billion (for about 11% of its shares). With a total market valuation projected at $313.4 billion, Ant would be ranked the third largest among Chinese listed companies and the 12th largest public company in the world, surpassing JPMorgan Chase, which is currently the most valuable publicly listed bank in the world.

Will Ant still break the world record if and when its IPO is resumed? If the suspension is accompanied by new regulatory restrictions on its business activities, its market valuation can certainly dampen, but Ant has also demonstrated creativity and tenacity many times in its short history. By leveraging the popularity of its digital payment App in China, it has expanded successfully into selling mutual funds, insurance products, and a range of other financial service products. Besides the growth potential in each of its current businesses, Ant has numerous other growth opportunities.

For example, Ant has in-house algorithms to generate informative scores on credit risks for digital-payment users, including but also extending beyond those who shop or sell regularly online. Credit scoring, when permitted by China’s regulatory authorities, can be a standalone new business with potential demands from supply-chain firms, landlords, banks, and prospective employers.

Overseas expansion is another potential growth area. Compared to the company’s dragon-sized dominance in domestic e-finance, it is still an ant outside of China. Take digital payment as an example, its overseas business volume is only 0.5% of its domestic volume. With its powerful algorithms and technical know-how, however, it should be able to find market demand in many other countries, especially if it can gain the trust of foreign regulators and piggyback on Alibaba’s own international expansion.

Ant still faces many potential headwinds. First, the United States and India’s recent restrictions on Chinese companies are reminders that its ultimate overseas success may depend on geopolitical dynamics beyond its control. Second, and more importantly, China’s own domestic regulators will have a huge impact on how much Ant can grow and expand into new businesses. Like US and EU regulators with respect to their own BigTech companies, Chinese authorities are concerned about Ant’s near-monopoly position in digital payments, as well as the unforeseen risks to financial stability and data privacy that it poses.

These concerns must be weighed against the value that the company and fintech innovations offer to society. One cannot make general statements as some innovations could widen a gap between technological haves and have-nots. In the case of Ant, however, it has demonstrated to be a force for financial inclusion in the economy. Its technology has made loans accessible to millions of small and micro enterprises that previously could not borrow, owing to a lack of collateralizable assets – including in China’s poorer, marginalized regions. Ant also promotes gender equality in entrepreneurship. While men outnumber women three-to-one among offline entrepreneurs, there is near gender parity among online entrepreneurs, and women-led firms are helped by Ant’s merit-based, gender-blind loan program.

Ant is also an unsung hero in liberalizing interest rates in China. Interest and exchange rates are arguably two of the most important prices in any economy, and before the fintech revolution, China imposed a cap on the interest rate paid to depositors (together with a floor on the lending interest rate), which meant that households were earning a return on their savings below the market interest rate. It is said that the low interest rate is one reason for the high savings rate in China(more savings are needed to achieve a given monetary target), which contributes to a large current account surplus. Although paying market interest rates on household savings would enhance economic efficiency and potentially reduce China’s external imbalances, reforms to achieve that result are difficult to implement, because commercial banks that benefit from low deposit interest rates have scant incentive to change, and interest rate regulation had prevented individual banks from deviating from the status quo.

Ant changed all of this in June 2013 when it introduced Yuebao, an easily accessible money-market fund that pays a market interest rate. By allowing for almost instantaneous purchase and redemption from its digital and a low starting investment (￥1), Yuebao offered millions of ordinary households a financial service never experienced in their economic life, making them realize that they need not tolerate the low interest rates of banks. In my own research (with Greg Buchak of Stanford University and Jiayin Hu of Peking University), we have found that Yuebao triggered a de facto financial liberalization across China, by putting pressure on banks to roll out their own low-entry barrier, low-cost, and market-rate-paying products.

Ordinary Chinese consumers now enjoy banking services of a quality and on a scale that would have been unthinkable before this silent revolution in the country’s financial services that Ant has help to facilitate. Beyond applying socially beneficial competitive pressure, Ant also helps many banks expand their own business and improve their efficiency through cooperative joint-lending agreements. These arrangements combine a bank’s low cost-of-capital advantage with Ant’s data- and algorithm-driven approach to risk and cost control. With 100 such partnerships in operation, Ant has discovered and delivered many creditworthy borrowers that were previously invisible to the banks and/or too expensive to serve. Better yet, the default rates on these loans are often lower than banks’ own lending programs.

Most of the social benefits stemming from Ant’s expansion come as a by-product of the company’s profit-seeking activities. This is not a bad thing as it makes them sustainable. A big line of Ant’s business is personal loans, which can help households better manage temporary income or expenditure shocks, say for illness or education. One concern is that greater availability of such loans could result in financially unsophisticated people taking on too much debt, or otherwise exacerbating their “behavioral biases,” thereby creating greater financial instability.

However, these concerns tend not to be based on systematic evidence. More research and evaluations in this area thus would help to ensure that Ant – and fintech innovation in general – can progress in ways that are good not just for financial investors but for society at large.

* 作者魏尚進(jìn)現(xiàn)任復(fù)旦大學(xué)泛海國(guó)際金融學(xué)院學(xué)術(shù)訪問(wèn)教授、哥倫比亞大學(xué)終身講席教授。同時(shí)擔(dān)任美國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局（NBER）中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究組創(chuàng)始主任，美國(guó)布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)（Brookings Institution）高級(jí)研究員。曾任亞洲開發(fā)銀行（ADB）首位華人首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、經(jīng)濟(jì)研究與區(qū)域合作局局長(zhǎng)，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）貿(mào)易與投資處處長(zhǎng)，世界銀行（WB）顧問(wèn)等職務(wù)。本文編譯：潘琦。