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選擇法大MBA，做穩(wěn)健遠(yuǎn)行的企業(yè)家

Cross-border IPO boom is rich in promise — and peril

跨境IPO熱潮中的機(jī)遇與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

正如在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)代一樣，一些人可能暴富，但另一些人很可能輸?shù)镁狻?/p>

When China’s biggest e-cigarette maker listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in January, the price doubled on the first day, lifting RLX Technology’s valuation to $46bn.

今年1月，當(dāng)中國(guó)最大電子煙制造商霧芯科技(RLX Technology)在紐約證交所(NYSE)上市時(shí)，其股價(jià)在開(kāi)盤首日暴漲一倍，使其市值升至460億美元。

But last week RLX’s share price crashed to earth on reports that Beijing is tightening vaping regulations and fears the US will delist Chinese companies. It is now worth $14bn.

但上周，霧芯科技股價(jià)暴跌，原因是有報(bào)道稱，中國(guó)政府正在收緊對(duì)電子煙的監(jiān)管，而且市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂中國(guó)企業(yè)將被美國(guó)摘牌。霧芯科技目前市值為140億美元。

RLX’s wild ride highlights the risks and rewards to be found in one of the steamiest parts of the red-hot global market for initial public offerings. Investors have been pouring into cross-border US listings, in which far-flung companies sell shares on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Just as in the dotcom era some people are becoming very rich, but others may well be left holding the bag.

霧芯科技過(guò)山車般的股價(jià)波動(dòng)，突顯出在火熱的全球首次公開(kāi)發(fā)行(IPO)市場(chǎng)中，有個(gè)最炙手可熱的領(lǐng)域同時(shí)存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)。從遙遠(yuǎn)的地方跨境來(lái)到美國(guó)紐交所和納斯達(dá)克(Nasdaq)上市售股的企業(yè)，一直受到投資者追捧。正如在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫時(shí)代一樣，一些人實(shí)現(xiàn)了暴富，但另一些人很可能輸?shù)镁狻?/p>

Global IPOs are on pace for a record first quarter. The $90bn raised so far is more than triple last year’s total at this time, and the 400-odd floats are ahead of the pace set in 2000, according to Refinitiv data. Those totals don’t even include a further $91bn raised by 300 Spacs, special purpose acquisition companies that seek to merge with private groups.

全球IPO將在今年第一季度創(chuàng)下新的紀(jì)錄。路孚特(Refinitiv)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年迄今900億美元的融資規(guī)模，是去年同期融資總額的三倍以上，400多筆的IPO數(shù)量超過(guò)了2000年的水平。這些融資總額甚至還不包括300家尋求與未上市公司合并的特殊目的收購(gòu)公司(SPAC)籌集的910億美元。

Much of the activity is in the US. Companies seen as pandemic winners, mostly in tech and healthcare, are rushing to float while enthusiasm is high. Many are homegrown entrepreneurs, but others have little US connection. Their assets and customers are abroad, often in Asia. Yet cross-border floats account for 38 per cent of new US listings this year, the most in two decades.

這些IPO大部分都發(fā)生在美國(guó)。被視為疫情贏家的公司——主要來(lái)自科技和醫(yī)療行業(yè)——都加緊趁市場(chǎng)熱情高漲時(shí)上市。其中許多是在美國(guó)本土創(chuàng)立的，但有一些與美國(guó)沒(méi)有什么關(guān)聯(lián)。它們的資產(chǎn)和客戶都在美國(guó)之外，通常是在亞洲。然而，跨境上市數(shù)量占到今年美國(guó)新上市的38%，為20年來(lái)最高水平。

This month, Coupang, a Korean ecommerce company, made the largest US debut for an overseas company since Alibaba in 2014. In February, Chinese cloud services provider Cloopen saw its share price triple on its first day of NYSE trading.

本月，韓國(guó)電商公司Coupang成為自2014年阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市以來(lái)規(guī)模最大的海外公司赴美IPO。今年2月，中國(guó)云服務(wù)提供商容聯(lián)云通訊(Cloopen)在紐交所上市首日股價(jià)暴漲兩倍。

These companies head to the US in search of higher valuations and experienced investors who are comfortable pouring money into groups that have yet to show a profit. US listings also allow overseas groups to benefit more directly from supportive Federal Reserve policies and President Joe Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus package.

這些公司赴美上市，是為了尋求更高的估值以及經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的投資者，這些投資者有信心將資金投入尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利的企業(yè)。在美國(guó)上市還可以讓海外企業(yè)更直接地受益于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的支持性政策，以及美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬?拜登(Joe Biden)的1.9萬(wàn)億美元經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃。

Other stock exchanges are watching with envy. Singapore, where IPOs are down year on year, is accelerating plans to attract Spacs, and London, despite having its best start on IPOs since the 2008 crisis, is overhauling its listing rules to make floats there more attractive to tech founders.

其他證券交易所非常眼饞。IPO數(shù)量同比下滑的新加坡正在加快實(shí)施吸引特殊目的收購(gòu)公司的計(jì)劃。倫敦正在改革上市規(guī)則，以提高對(duì)科技公司創(chuàng)始人的吸引力——盡管其實(shí)現(xiàn)了自2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)最好的IPO開(kāi)局。

For US-based investors, cross-border listings have significant appeal. They can tap into growing overseas markets, the rise of ecommerce in emerging markets and Asia’s relatively rapid recovery from Covid lockdown — all without the bother of foreign stock holdings. Coupang and Cloopen may be lossmaking now, but so was Amazon in the 1990s, enthusiasts say.

跨境上市對(duì)美國(guó)境內(nèi)的投資者具有巨大吸引力。他們可以獲益于海外市場(chǎng)的不斷增長(zhǎng)、新興市場(chǎng)電子商務(wù)的崛起，以及亞洲從新冠封鎖中相對(duì)較快的復(fù)蘇——只需持有外國(guó)公司股票即可。Coupang和容聯(lián)云通訊眼下或許處于虧損之中，但亞馬遜(Amazon)在1990年代也是如此，狂熱的投資者表示。

However, the overseas element adds economic and political risks. Though cross-border IPOs comply with US rules, many of them have multiple share classes or other structures that limit the rights of minority investors. It is also hard for western investors to anticipate regulatory changes in countries they do not know well. The problems are most serious in China, but extend further.

然而，海外因素增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。雖然跨境IPO需要遵守美國(guó)的規(guī)定，但許多企業(yè)都有限制少數(shù)股股東權(quán)利的多重股權(quán)架構(gòu)或其他結(jié)構(gòu)。西方投資者也很難預(yù)測(cè)在他們不甚了解的國(guó)家里會(huì)發(fā)生怎樣的監(jiān)管規(guī)定變化。這些問(wèn)題在中國(guó)最為嚴(yán)重，在其他國(guó)家也普遍存在。

“You really don’t know what you are getting,” says Charles Elson, a governance expert at the University of Delaware. “You are betting that their corporate success is going to be so great that they will pass some of it on to you.”

特拉華大學(xué)(University of Delaware)公司治理專家查爾斯?埃爾森(Charles Elson)表示：“你真的不知道會(huì)獲得怎樣的回報(bào)。你在押注他們的公司會(huì)取得如此大的成功，讓你能分一杯羹?！?/p>

RLX is a cautionary example. Investors seem to have been blindsided by Beijing’s proposed new rules on e-cigarettes. US-listed Chinese stocks have also been hit more broadly by this week’s announcement that American regulators are moving forward with plans that would force all Chinese companies to delist if Beijing continues to deny watchdogs access to their books.

霧芯科技是一個(gè)讓人警醒的例子。中國(guó)政府?dāng)M推出的電子煙新規(guī)似乎打了投資者一個(gè)措手不及。在美上市的中概股還受到了更廣泛的打擊，原因是美國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)上周宣布，如果中國(guó)政府繼續(xù)拒絕讓其獲得檢查在美上市中國(guó)企業(yè)賬目的權(quán)限，它們將推進(jìn)迫使所有中國(guó)企業(yè)退市的計(jì)劃。

A broader shift away from high growth companies to stocks that will benefit from post-pandemic reopening is also starting to affect share prices. China’s Connect Biopharma is below its March 19 listing price. Zhihu, a Chinese question-and-answer website, priced at the bottom of its range yet still opened sharply down on Friday. Korea’s Coupang has been spared specific China concerns, but its share price is still below its first day’s close.

投資者的整體注意力從高增長(zhǎng)公司向?qū)⑹芤嬗谝吆笾匦麻_(kāi)放的公司股票轉(zhuǎn)移，也正在開(kāi)始影響股價(jià)。中國(guó)的康乃德生物醫(yī)藥(Connect Biopharma)的股價(jià)目前低于其3月19日的發(fā)行價(jià)。中文問(wèn)答網(wǎng)站知乎(Zhihu)將發(fā)行價(jià)定在其定價(jià)區(qū)間的底部，但上周五上市后仍大幅下跌。韓國(guó)的Coupang雖不受中概股特殊問(wèn)題影響，但其股價(jià)仍低于上市首日收盤價(jià)。

Bankers insist that the strong companies will survive and benefit from long-term emerging markets growth. “The excess speculation is being wrung out of the market. That's very normal. Stock charts don't got up in a straight line,” says Gregg Nabhan of Bank of America.

銀行家們堅(jiān)稱，實(shí)力雄厚的企業(yè)將生存下來(lái)，并從新興市場(chǎng)的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)中受益?！斑^(guò)度投機(jī)正在被擠出市場(chǎng)。這很正常。股價(jià)走勢(shì)圖不會(huì)是一條上升的直線?！泵绹?guó)銀行(Bank of America)的格雷格?納卜漢(Gregg Nabhan)說(shuō)。

That’s certainly true for Amazon, but also for Pets.com and dozens of bankrupt companies that no one now remembers.

對(duì)亞馬遜來(lái)說(shuō)的確是如此，但對(duì)于如今已沒(méi)人記得的Pets.com和數(shù)十家已破產(chǎn)的公司來(lái)說(shuō)也是如此。

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劉紀(jì)鵬：中國(guó)政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)、MBA教育中心主任、二級(jí)教授、博士生導(dǎo)師、高級(jí)研究員、高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師、注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師。