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Bitcoin mining boom adds to chip price inflation

比特幣挖礦潮加劇芯片短缺

比特幣價格飆升導(dǎo)致的挖礦潮加劇了全球芯片短缺，這種狀況不會很快改變。

As the price of bitcoin has surged, the hidden costs of the cryptocurrency boom are becoming clearer.

隨著比特幣價格飆升，加密貨幣市場紅火的隱藏成本正變得越來越清晰。

Awareness of the environmental consequences of using a vast array of computer equipment to produce bitcoins has been rising. Bill Gates has been among those to flag concerns, pointing out that so-called bitcoin mining uses more electricity per transaction than any other method known to mankind.

人們越來越清楚地認識到，使用大量計算機設(shè)備制造比特幣會對環(huán)境造成種種后果。比爾?蓋茨(Bill Gates)就是表示擔(dān)憂的人士之一，他指出，所謂的比特幣挖礦每筆交易消耗的電力比人類已知的任何其他方法都要多。

Much less discussed, and yet perhaps more immediate, is mining’s impact on costs of chips — which go into everything from smartphones and TVs to cars.

比特幣挖礦對芯片價格的影響雖然討論得較少，但可能更為迫在眉睫。從智能手機、電視到汽車，無數(shù)東西都需要芯片。

Bitcoin is created by bitcoin miners, who are issued with the cryptocurrency in return for completing massive volumes of computations to verify transactions. This requires a high energy input. But minersalso require increasingly powerful computer equipment, or rigs, for the process.

比特幣由礦工創(chuàng)造，完成大量用于驗證交易的計算會讓礦工獲得比特幣。這個過程需要消耗很多能量。不僅如此，礦工還需要越來越強大的計算機設(shè)備，也就是礦機，來完成這一過程。

How quickly bitcoins can be minted is directly correlated to how advanced chips inside the rigs are. As the price of bitcoin rises, so does the profitability of mining. It costs around an average of $5,000 to mine a single bitcoin. With bitcoin trading around $58,000, fat margins have pushed mining revenue to a record $1.4bn last month. As a result, miners are splurging on more and more computers and high-end chips.

比特幣的挖出速度與礦機芯片的先進程度有直接關(guān)系。隨著比特幣價格的上升，挖礦的利潤也在上升。開采一枚比特幣的平均成本約為5000美元。在比特幣的交易價格達到每枚約5.8萬美元的情況下，豐厚的利潤率上月將比特幣挖礦收入推高至創(chuàng)紀錄的14億美元。因此，礦工正在斥巨資購買越來越多電腦和高端芯片。

The problem is that even without that growing demand from cryptocurrency miners, the semiconductor industry is struggling with a global shortage. The pandemic, snowstorms in Texas and fires have caused severe disruptions to production and supply chains.

問題是，即使沒有加密貨幣礦工不斷增長的需求，半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)已經(jīng)受到全球短缺困擾。新冠疫情、得克薩斯州的暴風(fēng)雪和火災(zāi)已經(jīng)嚴重擾亂芯片的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)鏈。

“Added demand from cryptocurrency miners is coming when the chip industry is dealing with simultaneous crises — from supply constraints to a structural shortage of high-end chips.” says CW Chung, head of research at Nomura in Seoul. “The squeeze should last through the end of the year.”

“加密貨幣礦工的需求增加之際，芯片行業(yè)正同時面臨從供應(yīng)緊縮到高端芯片結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺等危機?！币按遄C券(Nomura)駐首爾研究主管CW Chung表示，“緊張情況應(yīng)該會持續(xù)到年底?！?/p>

Shortages are affecting a broad range of industries. Automakers including Toyota and Volkswagen have slashed production of cars as a result. Smartphone makers are delaying launches of new models. A shortage of gaming chips has forced chipmaker Nvidiato programme a new chip to throttle mining efficiency by half when it detects it is being used to mine cryptocurrency.

芯片短缺影響到了許多行業(yè)。豐田(Toyota)和大眾汽車(Volkswagen)等汽車制造商因此削減了汽車產(chǎn)量。智能手機制造商推遲了新機發(fā)布。由于游戲芯片短缺，芯片制造商英偉達(Nvidia)不得不編寫一款新芯片，該芯片在檢測到自己被用于加密貨幣挖礦時，效率將降低一半。

TSMC and Samsung,theworld’s largest chipmakers, make most of the chips used in cryptocurrency mining. The two are also the main supplier for the world’s tech groups such as Apple and Intel — which make up a much larger portion of chipmaker revenues than bitcoin miners.Even so, production capacity for chips has been diverted away from industries that need a continuous supply.

全球最大芯片制造商臺積電(TSMC)和三星(Samsung)生產(chǎn)了大多數(shù)用于加密貨幣挖礦的芯片。這兩家企業(yè)也是蘋果(Apple)和英特爾(Intel)等科技企業(yè)的主要供應(yīng)商——在芯片制造商的營收中，這些科技企業(yè)占據(jù)的比例遠大于比特幣礦工。即便如此，為那些需要持續(xù)供應(yīng)的產(chǎn)業(yè)服務(wù)的芯片產(chǎn)能也已減少。

Besides specialised chips, miners are snapping up more computers and servers — which is pushing up demand for traditional Dram chips used in PCs. It does not help that the second quarter is traditionally the peak season for chips used in servers,crucial to the businesses of bigtech groups like Google and Facebook.

除了專業(yè)芯片，礦工們還在占據(jù)更多的電腦和服務(wù)器——這正在推高個人電腦使用的傳統(tǒng)動態(tài)隨機存取存儲器(DRAM)芯片的需求。第二季度傳統(tǒng)上是服務(wù)器所用芯片的需求高峰期，這讓情況雪上加霜。服務(wù)器對谷歌(Google)和Facebook等大型科技企業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)至關(guān)重要。

All that has played a part in pushing prices of Dram chips up over 60 per cent in the past three months.While those have boosted chipmaker profits, theshortfall has wreaked havoc on the sector's previously predictable price cycle. Chip prices had been expected to fall last year. Now, another 20 per cent rise in consumer chip prices is expected from the second quarter as the shortage intensifies.

DRAM芯片價格在過去3個月上漲60%，以上所有因素都與之有關(guān)。雖然價格上漲提高了芯片制造商的利潤，但芯片短缺給該產(chǎn)業(yè)曾經(jīng)可預(yù)期的價格周期帶來了災(zāi)難。按照去年的預(yù)期，芯片價格本應(yīng)該下降。但現(xiàn)在，隨著短缺加劇，預(yù)計消費品芯片價格將在第二季度進一步上漲20%。

“Cryptocurrency industry demand can have a significant influence on the chip market — during the last bitcoin rally, they were a tenth of TSMC's entire sales,” says Chung.

Chung表示：“加密貨幣產(chǎn)業(yè)的需求可能對芯片市場造成重大影響——在上一次比特幣牛市期間，該產(chǎn)業(yè)占據(jù)了臺積電全部銷量的十分之一?！?/p>

Structuralchanges are making the situation worse. Smartphone and game console makers have changed purchasing habits, stockpiling months’ worth of chips ahead of a prolonged period of high prices.Anengineershortage cannot be ruled out either. Taiwanese prosecutors have accused Beijing-based Bitmain Technologies, the world’s largest crypto-mining equipment maker, of allegedly poaching more than 100 local engineers.

結(jié)構(gòu)性變化正在令情況雪上加霜。智能手機和游戲機制造商改變了采購習(xí)慣，在比以往持續(xù)更久的高價時期到來之前，囤積了夠用數(shù)月的芯片。工程師人才短缺也不容忽視。臺灣檢察官指控總部位于北京的比特大陸(Bitmain Technologies)——世界上最大的加密貨幣礦機制造商——挖走了超過100名臺灣工程師。

Critically, chips are one of the most expensive components of consumer electronics devices such as smartphones and PCs. Increased supply to bring down prices will not be fast in coming. The process of sourcing raw materials and producing chips, which used to take at least three months, is getting longer. Building capacity takes years. There are few other suppliers that can produce at scale.

更關(guān)鍵的是，芯片是智能手機和個人電腦等消費電子設(shè)備中最昂貴的部件之一。供應(yīng)增加使價格下降的情況不會很快出現(xiàn)。采購原材料并生產(chǎn)芯片的過程以往至少需要3個月，現(xiàn)在變得更久了。構(gòu)建產(chǎn)能則需要數(shù)年。沒有多少其他供應(yīng)商可以規(guī)?；a(chǎn)。

What then? Previous patterns of behaviour show that bitcoin mining stops being profitable for most miners when the price of bitcoin falls below $3,800. At current levels, that is a long way away.

接下來會怎樣？過去的行為模式顯示，當比特幣價格跌破3800美元時，比特幣挖礦對大多數(shù)礦工而言就不再有利可圖了?，F(xiàn)在的價格離那個數(shù)字還遠著呢。