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Joe Biden’s chance to end middle class stagnation拜登將有機(jī)會(huì)結(jié)束“中產(chǎn)停滯”

盧斯：即將到來的繁榮給了拜登一個(gè)重置美國資本主義的機(jī)會(huì)，可以讓天平重新朝著工人傾斜，但這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)可能很短暫。

Once every generation or so, America’s social contract changes. After half a century in which capital has been in the driving seat, Joe Biden has a chance to tilt the advantage back to labour.

每隔一代人左右，美國的社會(huì)契約就會(huì)發(fā)生變化。在資本占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位半個(gè)世紀(jì)之后，喬?拜登(Joe Biden)得到了一次將天平重新傾斜向工人的機(jī)會(huì)。

Such an opportunity would have been unthinkable a year ago. The US left can thank the pandemic for this change in the political weather. Biden has so far not let the global health emergency go to waste. The question is whether he can build on the recently passed fiscal stimulus to shift bargaining power towards the American worker.

這樣的機(jī)會(huì)在一年前是不可想象的。美國左派可以將這一政治天氣變化歸功于疫情。到目前為止，拜登沒有浪費(fèi)這次全球衛(wèi)生緊急事件。問題是他能否依托最近通過的財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃，使議價(jià)能力朝著美國工人轉(zhuǎn)移。

The macro-conditions Biden faces are close to ideal. With the US set to reach herd immunity in the early summer thanks to its vaccination programme, growth will come roaring back as social distancing recedes. The coming boom will be fuelled by the release of pent-up consumer demand that has pushed America’s personal savings rate to a record high, now being lifted even higher by the latest federal stimulus. Growth is expected to top 6 per cent this year, according to the Federal Reserve, which will more than erase last year’s losses.

拜登面對(duì)的宏觀環(huán)境近乎理想狀態(tài)。在疫苗接種計(jì)劃的推動(dòng)下，美國應(yīng)該會(huì)在夏初達(dá)到群體免疫。隨著社交距離逐漸取消，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將迅速恢復(fù)。被壓抑的消費(fèi)需求——已將美國的個(gè)人儲(chǔ)蓄率推至歷史新高——將得到釋放，這將推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮，而最新的聯(lián)邦刺激計(jì)劃又將帶來動(dòng)力。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)預(yù)計(jì)今年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將超過6%，這將不止彌補(bǔ)去年的損失。

The central bank’s stance is about as dovish as it can get. This week Jay Powell, the Fed chair, basically guaranteed that he would tolerate inflation above 2 per cent for a sustained period. The Fed does not expect to lift its benchmark interest rate before 2024. Rarely do central banks promise to keep the punch bowl filled as the party gets going. Biden is inheriting an optimal two-year window to spread the fruits of unchecked growth to America’s middle classes.

央行的立場是盡可能的溫和。本周，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)基本上保證，他將容忍通脹在一段較長時(shí)間內(nèi)高于2%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)在2024年之前不會(huì)提高基準(zhǔn)利率。央行很少承諾只要派對(duì)不停酒杯就一直斟滿。拜登繼承的是一個(gè)最佳的兩年窗口期，可以將不受抑制的增長的成果分享給美國的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。

On its own, however, a strong US rebound will not change the structure of the economy, nor do much to dent America’s acute inequality. Most of the income portions of the $1.9tn American Rescue Plan Act consist of one-off transfer payments and an extension to unemployment payouts. They will comfortably tide people over the pandemic. The question is what Biden can do to alter the rules of the game for the long term after the economy returns to trend growth.

然而，就其本身而言，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁反彈不會(huì)改變其經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，也不會(huì)在很大程度上緩解美國嚴(yán)重的不平等。在1.9萬億美元“美國救助計(jì)劃法案”(American Rescue Plan Act)中，收入部分大體上由一次性轉(zhuǎn)移支付和延長失業(yè)補(bǔ)貼組成。它們將幫助人們安然度過這場大流行病。問題是，在經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)趨勢(shì)增長之后，拜登能做些什么從而在長期內(nèi)改變游戲規(guī)則。

The starting point is to acknowledge that America’s median income stagnation is in some part the result of decisions taken by politicians. Until recently, the left and right agreed, as Bill Clinton once put it, that globalisation was “the economic equivalent of a force of nature”. It followed that there was little government could do, other than encouraging people to boost their skills, to shield Americans from the global chill winds.

首先是要承認(rèn)，美國收入中位數(shù)的停滯在某種程度上是政客們所做決定的結(jié)果。直到最近左右兩派還都同意——用比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)的話來說——全球化是“經(jīng)濟(jì)界的自然力量”。按照這一說法，除了鼓勵(lì)人們提高技能，政府在保護(hù)美國人免受全球寒風(fēng)侵襲方面幾乎無能為力。

This was a cop out. Since the 1970s, Washington has done plenty to weaken the power of trade unions, cut social insurance and allow educational costs to increase beyond the reach of ordinary Americans. Instead of cushioning such trends, successive US administrations, including Democratic ones, leaned in further.

這是一種逃避。自20世紀(jì)70年代以來，華盛頓采取了大量措施削弱工會(huì)的權(quán)力，削減社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)，并允許教育成本上升到普通美國人無法承受的地步。歷屆美國政府，包括民主黨政府，非但沒有緩和這些趨勢(shì)，反而進(jìn)一步向其傾斜。

Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, once said: “I hear people say we have to stop and debate globalisation. You might as well debate whether autumn should follow summer.”

英國前首相托尼?布萊爾(Tony Blair)曾說：“我聽到有人說我們必須停下來討論全球化。你不妨討論一下夏天之后是不是應(yīng)該是秋天。”

Today both left and right are happy to have that debate. But they are nowhere near consensus. The Republican party tends to blame China almost exclusively for America’s middle-class struggles. Leftwing Democrats prefer to target America’s super-wealthy. Neither side focuses enough on the downward impact of technology on the price of American labour. The remedies for this come in three tranches: boosting US labour productivity; ensuring that workers take those gains in higher pay and benefits; and lifting support for those left behind.

今天左右兩派都很樂意進(jìn)行這一討論。但他們離達(dá)成共識(shí)還差得遠(yuǎn)。共和黨傾向于將美國中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的困頓全都?xì)w咎于中國。左翼民主黨人更喜歡把矛頭指向美國的超級(jí)富豪。兩邊都沒有足夠重視技術(shù)對(duì)美國勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格的下行影響。解決這一問題的方法有三：提高美國勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率；確保工人能享受由此帶來的好處，提高工資和福利；并為那些被落在后面的人提供支持。

The first is basically the goal of Biden’s Build Back Better programme. He wants to pour money into green technology and broadband. The second involves boosting employee leverage and tackling oligopoly across the US economy. All three entail making the US tax system more progressive.

第一個(gè)基本上是拜登的“重建更美好未來”(Build Back Better)計(jì)劃的目標(biāo)。他希望資金能投到綠色技術(shù)和寬帶上。第二點(diǎn)涉及到提高雇員的影響力，并解決美國經(jīng)濟(jì)中的寡頭壟斷問題。這三點(diǎn)都需要使美國的稅收制度更具有累進(jìn)制色彩。

However, each of these, particularly a $15 minimum wage, higher corporate taxes and pro-union legislation, are likely to run aground on Senate obstructionism. It is quite possible that Biden’s historic window will slam shut in the coming weeks.

然而，每一項(xiàng)措施，尤其是15美元的最低工資、提高企業(yè)稅和支持工會(huì)的立法，都可能因在參議院遇到阻撓而擱淺。拜登的歷史性機(jī)會(huì)之窗很有可能在未來幾周關(guān)閉。

At which point he would face a choice: embrace Senate majority votes by scrapping its 60-vote filibuster, or allow the US economy to drift back to pre-pandemic rules. The latter would be tolerable. After 40 years of stagnation (barring a strong blip in the 1990s) median income grew between 2015 and 2019, mostly because of falling unemployment. Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, estimates that the middle class recaptured about a tenth of what it lost in those years. But at that rate, and assuming no recessions, it would take another 40 years to regain its share of the economy.

屆時(shí)他將面臨一個(gè)選擇：廢除參議院60票才能結(jié)束冗長辯論的機(jī)制，采納多數(shù)票機(jī)制，或者允許美國經(jīng)濟(jì)退回到新冠大流行前的規(guī)則。后者是可以容忍的。在經(jīng)歷了40年的停滯——除了上世紀(jì)90年代的一次強(qiáng)勁增長——之后，收入中位數(shù)在2015年至2019年之間出現(xiàn)了增長，這主要是由于失業(yè)率的下降。哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard)教授、前經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問委員會(huì)(Council of Economic Advisers)主席賈森?弗曼(Jason Furman)估計(jì)，中產(chǎn)階級(jí)拿回了那些年損失的十分之一。但以這樣的速度，且假設(shè)經(jīng)濟(jì)不發(fā)生衰退，他們還需要40年才能恢復(fù)其在經(jīng)濟(jì)中的份額。

My bet is that circumstances will push Biden down the more radical path. More than 70 per cent of Americans support the stimulus, including a majority of Republicans. Donald Trump proved two things about US politics. First, rightwing voters are fine with budget deficits, as long as they benefit. Second, they are highly receptive to cultural and racial appeals.

我敢打賭，形勢(shì)將推動(dòng)拜登走上更激進(jìn)的道路。逾70%的美國人支持那項(xiàng)刺激計(jì)劃，共和黨人中也是多數(shù)贊成。唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)證明了美國政治的兩件事。首先，只要對(duì)右翼選民有利，他們就不會(huì)介意預(yù)算赤字。其次，他們對(duì)文化和種族訴求的接受度很高。

Biden, in other words, has a chance to take the sting out of US populism with a game-changing economic agenda. It is a historic opening that is unlikely to come again soon. He must weigh that against the cost of preserving the Senate veto for a party that increasingly talks only about culture. As time goes on, it will seem like no choice at all.

換句話說，拜登有機(jī)會(huì)憑借一個(gè)改變游戲規(guī)則的經(jīng)濟(jì)議程，減少美國民粹主義帶來的麻煩。這是一個(gè)歷史性的機(jī)遇，近期內(nèi)不太可能再次出現(xiàn)。他必須權(quán)衡利弊，拿它與為一個(gè)越來越只談文化的政黨保留那項(xiàng)參議院否決權(quán)所需付出的代價(jià)相比較。隨著時(shí)間的推移，似乎不會(huì)再有任何選擇機(jī)會(huì)了。

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劉紀(jì)鵬：中國政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院院長、MBA教育中心主任、二級(jí)教授、博士生導(dǎo)師、高級(jí)研究員、高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師、注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師。