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Biden’s stimulus will affect the whole worldFT社評(píng)：拜登刺激計(jì)劃將影響全世界刺激計(jì)劃將帶來(lái)繁榮的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，可能會(huì)引起全球利率上升，這可能削弱富國(guó)的刺激努力，而窮國(guó)將更難適應(yīng)這種新形勢(shì)。

For the decade after the 2008/2009 financial crisis, many commentators pointed out that monetary policy had become the “only game in town”. With governments concerned to repair their own balance sheets as tax revenues collapsed following the financial crisis, it was left up to central bankers to try to stimulate the economy through cheap money and unconventional asset-purchase programmes. The gargantuan fiscal stimulus package that will soon pass the US Congress will end this regime. The shift will have significance far beyond America’s borders.

在2008年至2009年金融危機(jī)之后的10年內(nèi)，許多評(píng)論者指出，貨幣政策已經(jīng)成為“唯一的選擇”。隨著金融危機(jī)后稅收崩潰，政府的重心放在修補(bǔ)它們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上，只剩下央行銀行家試圖通過(guò)廉價(jià)貨幣和非常規(guī)資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買項(xiàng)目來(lái)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)的巨額財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃將結(jié)束這種機(jī)制。這種轉(zhuǎn)變的重大影響將遠(yuǎn)超出美國(guó)本土范圍。

The OECD’s latest economic outlook forecasts that US president Joe Biden’s programme of government spending — worth 8.5 per cent of US national income — together with the rapid rollout of vaccination efforts, will lift global income by 1 per cent this year. The Paris-based think-tank estimates that the world economy will expand 5.6 per cent this year from its pandemic-induced low — up from its previous 4.2 per cent forecast last December.

經(jīng)合組織(OECD)最新經(jīng)濟(jì)展望預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)喬?拜登(Joe Biden)的政府支出計(jì)劃——價(jià)值相當(dāng)于美國(guó)國(guó)民收入的8.5%——以及迅速鋪開的疫苗接種工作，將使今年的全球收入提高1%。這個(gè)總部位于巴黎的智庫(kù)估計(jì)，今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將從疫情導(dǎo)致的低點(diǎn)擴(kuò)張5.6%——較其去年12月預(yù)測(cè)的4.2%有所提高。

A booming US economy means economic demand will “spill over” into the rest of the world, particularly its nearest neighbours and most important trading partners Mexico and Canada as well as export-oriented economies in east Asia and Europe. For advanced economies, which borrow in their own currencies, the implications of faster growth in the US is almost entirely positive — increasing potential exports as well as encouraging the “risk on” sentiment that boosts investment.

繁榮的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)需求將“外溢”至世界其他地區(qū)，特別是美國(guó)的鄰國(guó)、也是其最重要的貿(mào)易伙伴墨西哥和加拿大，以及東亞和歐洲的出口導(dǎo)向型國(guó)家。對(duì)于用本國(guó)貨幣借貸的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家而言，美國(guó)加速增長(zhǎng)的意義幾乎完全是積極的。這將增加潛在出口，并鼓勵(lì)能刺激投資的“冒險(xiǎn)”情緒。

An overheating US — if the greater demand for goods and services leads to capacity constraints and causes higher inflation — could, however, trigger higher interest rates globally. Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will either be forced into increasing rates to choke off inflationary pressure or feel comfortable removing stimulus as the economy returns to something near full employment. Members of the European Central Bank’s board are already concerned that this could raise financing costs — reducing the effectiveness of their stimulus efforts in a region where monetary policy remains by far the largest form of stimulus.

然而，如果對(duì)商品和服務(wù)需求的增加導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)能不足，并引起通脹升高，一個(gè)過(guò)熱的美國(guó)還可能引發(fā)全球利率升高。投資者現(xiàn)在指望美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)要么被迫提高利率以遏制通脹壓力，要么自愿在經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)到接近充分就業(yè)時(shí)撤銷刺激措施。歐洲央行(ECB)董事會(huì)成員已擔(dān)憂這可能提高融資成本。因?yàn)樵跉W洲，貨幣政策仍然是遙遙領(lǐng)先的首要刺激形式，利率升高將削減歐洲刺激努力的效率。

Poorer countries that struggle to borrow in their own currencies will find it harder to adjust. Rising rates will reverse some of the capital flows that have financed fragile economies and led to a stronger dollar, especially if the US recovery diverges from other rich countries. The most exposed countries are in a better position today than during the 2013 “taper tantrum”, when the Fed suggested it would begin to reduce the pace of asset purchases, and emerging market currencies plummeted. Many have spent the intervening period building up reserves to protect against similar outflows and reduce their reliance on external, dollar-denominated finance.

難以用本國(guó)貨幣借貸的較貧窮國(guó)家會(huì)更難適應(yīng)新形勢(shì)。利率的升高將逆轉(zhuǎn)一些資金流——這些資金流曾給脆弱經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供資金，并導(dǎo)致美元走強(qiáng)——特別是假如美國(guó)的復(fù)蘇與其他富裕國(guó)家拉開差距。敞口最大的那些國(guó)家如今的境況好于2013年的“縮減恐慌”(taper tantrum)時(shí)，當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)暗示它可能開始放緩資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買的速度，此后新興市場(chǎng)的貨幣暴跌。許多國(guó)家在那個(gè)時(shí)期建立了貨幣儲(chǔ)備，以防類似的資金外流，并降低對(duì)外部的、美元計(jì)價(jià)的資金的依賴。

Higher public sector debt loads, however, mean that for many poor countries rising rates will make themselves felt through government deficits as much as current account deficits — higher interest costs could mean some governments struggle to service debt. Rising commodity prices — lifted by both Chinese and US stimulus efforts — will help exporters but add to the woes of importers.

然而，公共部門債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)加重意味著，許多窮國(guó)會(huì)從政府赤字和經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目赤字中感受到利率的上升——利息成本上升也許意味著一些政府很難償付債務(wù)。中美刺激計(jì)劃導(dǎo)致的大宗商品價(jià)格上漲將有助于出口商，但會(huì)加重進(jìn)口商的苦惱。

Ultimately, though, the policy mix is an improvement on the post-2008 reliance on monetary policy. If the OECD is right about the impact of Biden’s stimulus programme — and there is good reason to think it will be — then a stronger US economy will help to drive a global recovery. It would be even better if the world no longer had to rely on just one source for stimulus and other rich countries were similarly ambitious.

不過(guò)，比起2008年以后對(duì)貨幣政策的依賴，這些政策組合歸根結(jié)底還是一種改善。如果經(jīng)合組織對(duì)拜登刺激計(jì)劃的影響預(yù)測(cè)正確（有充分理由認(rèn)為它會(huì)是正確的），那么更強(qiáng)大的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將有助于拉動(dòng)全球復(fù)蘇。如果世界不再必須依賴于一種刺激來(lái)源，而且其他富裕國(guó)家能有類似的雄心，那就更好了。