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比特幣能取代黃金嗎？

Bitcoin has ambitions for gold’s role

戴維斯：對加密貨幣采取敵對態(tài)度的各國央行也許會允許它們發(fā)揮有限作用。但監(jiān)管機構(gòu)似乎不必擔(dān)心加密貨幣會與黃金爭奪儲值手段的地位。

Investors in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a phenomenal run, but they are now worried that Janet Yellen’s arrival as US Treasury secretary may herald a new era of hostility from regulators and central banks towards what boosters call “l(fā)ibertarian” forms of digital money.

比特幣(bitcoin)和其他加密貨幣的投資者享受了這些貨幣的驚人增長，但他們現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心，珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)即將擔(dān)任美國財政部長，這也許意味著一個新時代的到來：監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和央行將對加密貨幣——支持者稱之為“自由意志主義”形式的數(shù)字貨幣——充滿敵意。

In her last press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve in 2017, Ms Yellen said bitcoin was a “highly speculative asset” and “not a stable store of value”. These dismissive remarks were echoed by many other public officials at the time. Since then, however, the market value of bitcoin has roughly doubled. Digital currencies are here to stay.

2017年，耶倫在作為美聯(lián)儲(Fed)主席的最后一次記者會上表示，比特幣是一種“高度投機的資產(chǎn)”，且“不是一種穩(wěn)定的儲值手段”。這些輕蔑的評論得到了當(dāng)時許多其他公共官員的共鳴。然而，自那以后，比特幣的市值幾乎翻了一番。數(shù)字貨幣還繼續(xù)存在。

In the first crypto frenzy of 2017-18, comedian John Oliver described bitcoin as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers”. The technology aspects, particularly the blockchain network of digital ledgers that are used to record transactions, have not really lived up to the initial hype, but they are beginning to make progress. The issuance of $20bn in “initial coin offerings” seemed to contain elements of a speculative bubble, but the funds raised are now being used to launch projects broadly similar to other IT ventures in Silicon Valley.

在2017年至2018年的第一波加密貨幣狂熱中，喜劇演員約翰?奧利弗(John Oliver)形容比特幣是“你對錢所不懂的一切，加上你對電腦所不懂的一切”。比特幣的技術(shù)方面，尤其用于記錄交易的數(shù)字賬本區(qū)塊鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)，還未達到最初宣傳的高度，但它們已開始取得進展。投資者向首次代幣發(fā)行(ICO)投入的200億美元似乎包含了投機泡沫的因素，但首次代幣發(fā)行所募集的資金現(xiàn)在被用于推出一些與硅谷其他IT風(fēng)投活動總體類似的項目。

Jay Clayton’s recent departure from the chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission may result in less hostile regulatory scrutiny of these activities, especially if Gary Gensler, who teaches about digital currencies, replaces him.

杰伊?克萊頓(Jay Clayton)最近卸任美國證券交易委員會(SEC)主席，也許會導(dǎo)致監(jiān)管部門對這些活動的審查變得不那么具有敵意，特別是如果教授數(shù)字貨幣課程的加里?根斯勒(Gary Gensler)接替他的話。

However, resistance to digital currencies as payments and transfer vehicles is likely to remain. Partly because of high transaction costs, bitcoin is not widely used for payments, and its future role seems limited.

然而，抵制將數(shù)字貨幣當(dāng)作支付和轉(zhuǎn)賬工具的行動很可能會持續(xù)存在。比特幣沒有被廣泛用于支付，其未來的角色似乎也有限，部分原因是交易費用高昂。

The outgoing Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has been working on new regulations to increase transparency in bitcoin transfers and reduce the scope for money laundering. Ms Yellen, in conjunction with the Fed, is likely to adopt an even more orthodox approach, treating the payments system as a quintessential public good.

即將卸任的美國財長史蒂文?姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)一直在制定新規(guī)，以加強比特幣轉(zhuǎn)賬的透明度，并縮小用比特幣洗錢的余地。耶倫與美聯(lián)儲很可能會采取更正統(tǒng)的方式，把支付系統(tǒng)打造成典型的公共產(chǎn)品。

The Fed is collaborating with foreign counterparts in investigating the development of central bank digital currencies. It is almost certain that CBDCs will eventually be issued in the major jurisdictions, following China’s lead. However, they will be denominated in national currencies, not crypto.

美聯(lián)儲正在與多家外國央行合作，調(diào)查央行數(shù)字貨幣(CBDC)的發(fā)展情況。幾乎可以肯定，世界主要司法管轄區(qū)最終都會效仿中國，發(fā)行央行數(shù)字貨幣。然而，這些貨幣將主要以國家貨幣計價，而不是加密貨幣。

Private competitors denominated in genuinely new currencies, such as bitcoin, will be heavily regulated or actively discouraged. Hybrid stablecoins, such as Facebook’s libra, that are pegged to a single currency or other real assets may be more welcomed by central banks, if they were directly transferable into traditional currencies. Furthermore, they may not be powered by blockchain. Each of the major central banks may develop its own distributed ledger technology.

由私營主體創(chuàng)造、以比特幣這類全新貨幣計價的競爭者將會受到嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管，或被積極阻止。像Facebook創(chuàng)建的Libra這樣的混合型穩(wěn)定幣也許更受央行歡迎——這類數(shù)字貨幣與單一貨幣或其他實物資產(chǎn)掛鉤——假如它們可以直接轉(zhuǎn)換成傳統(tǒng)貨幣的話。此外，它們可能不會以區(qū)塊鏈作為支撐。主要國家央行也許會各自研發(fā)自己的分布式賬本技術(shù)。

That still leaves a role for crypto as an investment vehicle and store of value. Can bitcoin seriously compete with gold as a safe asset for the largest investors? History, regulation and market volatility make that seem improbable, but it is beginning to develop a more important role. Many big hedge funds and some conventional asset managers have followed Paul Tudor Jones in adopting bitcoin as a core hedge against inflation. While this may have seemed attractive when central banks were in effect creating money by buying up government debt last year, there are few signs of inflation on the imminent horizon.

加密貨幣仍然具有作為投資工具和價值存儲的功能。對于最大的投資者來說，比特幣真的能與黃金爭奪安全資產(chǎn)的地位嗎？從歷史、監(jiān)管和市場波動性來看，這很可能不會成為現(xiàn)實，但加密貨幣正開始發(fā)揮更重要的作用。許多大型對沖基金和一些傳統(tǒng)資產(chǎn)管理公司紛紛效仿保羅?圖德?瓊斯(Paul Tudor Jones)，采用比特幣作為抵御通脹的核心對沖手段。盡管在各國央行去年通過購買政府債券來創(chuàng)造貨幣時，此舉看似很有吸引力，但現(xiàn)在幾乎沒有跡象表明即將出現(xiàn)通脹。

Yet bitcoin prices have continued to rise, apparently driven by a narrative that holds that a privately created asset, which in theory has a finite supply, cannot be “printed” like the “l(fā)egacy” fiat currencies.

然而，比特幣的價格仍在持續(xù)上漲，這顯然是受到了一種說法的推動，這種說法認為，理論上供應(yīng)量有限的私人資產(chǎn)不能像“傳統(tǒng)的”法定貨幣那樣“印刷”。

According to Gold Hub, gold stocks held above ground amounted to 198,000 tonnes at the end of 2019, with about 57,000 tonnes of proven reserves below ground. This total stock would be valued at about $17tn in today’s prices. The latest market value of bitcoin is about $0.6tn — bitcoin bulls see this as a gauge of how much further its price could rise.

根據(jù)Gold Hub的數(shù)據(jù)，截至2019年底，地上黃金儲備達到19.8萬噸，地下已探明儲量約為5.7萬噸。以如今的金價計算，黃金總儲量的價值約為17萬億美元。比特幣的最新市值約為0.6萬億美元——看漲比特幣的人士認為，這是衡量比特幣價格還能上漲多少的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

There seems little reason on monetary policy or financial stability grounds why regulators should be worried about cryptocurrencies competing with gold as a store of value.

從貨幣政策或金融穩(wěn)定的角度來看，監(jiān)管機構(gòu)似乎沒有什么理由擔(dān)心加密貨幣會與黃金爭奪價值貯藏手段的地位。

The crypto world is currently in a frenzy of short-term speculation. However, if investors continue to buy into the dubious narrative that these private currencies are “safer” than those controlled by the central banks, they could rise much further in market value in coming years.

加密貨幣的世界目前正處于短期投機的狂熱之中。然而，如果投資者繼續(xù)相信這些私人貨幣比央行控制的貨幣“更安全”的可疑說法，未來幾年這些加密貨幣的市值可能會進一步大幅上漲。

Stranger things have certainly happened in financial markets.

金融市場上肯定發(fā)生過更奇怪的事情。

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劉紀(jì)鵬：中國政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院院長、MBA教育中心主任、二級教授、博士生導(dǎo)師、高級研究員、高級經(jīng)濟師、注冊會計師。

孟令星：中國政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院講師、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清華大學(xué)商法學(xué)博士、中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟法學(xué)博士后、美國哈佛大學(xué)進修學(xué)者。

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