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[重點(diǎn)詞匯]v. 以...作抵押n. 擴(kuò)音器；放大器adj. 不透明的；含糊的

2021年金融體系將面臨壓力測(cè)試

Stress test looms for financial system in 2021

普倫德：金融體系將長(zhǎng)期面臨流動(dòng)性需求的定期激增，考驗(yàn)銀行和非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。這可能迫使央行長(zhǎng)期充當(dāng)紓困者。

Be warned. The global financial system in 2021 will face a gigantic stress test.

請(qǐng)注意：全球金融體系將在2021年面臨巨大的壓力測(cè)試。

This follows from one of the more important lessons that emerged from the coronavirus-induced market turmoil in March last year — a lesson that is worth revisiting.

這條警示源自去年3月新冠病毒引發(fā)的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩給我們上的重要一課——值得重新溫習(xí)的一課。

The so-called dash for cash was in part a reflection of how the big banks’ balance sheets had failed, since the 2008 financial crash, to keep pace with the growth in the stock of US Treasury securities that was spurred by the post-crisis surge in federal deficits.

那場(chǎng)所謂“緊急套現(xiàn)”在一定程度上反映出，自2008年金融危機(jī)以來，大型銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表未能跟上由危機(jī)后聯(lián)邦赤字激增推動(dòng)的美國(guó)國(guó)債存量增長(zhǎng)。

Their ability to act as intermediaries in the Treasury market was thus impaired. And their readiness to provide liquidity to the market by absorbing investor flows on to their balance sheets, as opposed to simply matching buyers and sellers, was further reduced by the tougher capital and liquidity rules introduced after the financial crisis.

這些大型銀行在美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)中充當(dāng)中介的能力因此遭到削弱。此外，金融危機(jī)后出臺(tái)的更嚴(yán)格的資本金和流動(dòng)性規(guī)定，使得這些銀行更難以通過將投資者的資金流吸收進(jìn)自己的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（而不是簡(jiǎn)單地撮合買方和賣方）來提供流動(dòng)性。

The stricter regulatory framework was, in one sense, good for financial stability. The banks emerged relatively safe from last year’s crisis. But their role as providers of liquidity has increasingly been filled by less-regulated non-banks, or shadow banks, such as hedge funds. These borrow heavily, often to maximise the return from trades that arbitrage tiny differences between the prices of closely related assets.

從某種意義上講，更嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管框架有利于金融穩(wěn)定。這些銀行相對(duì)安然無恙地度過了去年的危機(jī)，但它們作為市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性提供者的角色，已越來越多地被對(duì)沖基金等受到監(jiān)管較少的非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)、也就是影子銀行所取代。這些非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)大舉借貸，通常是為了最大化套利交易的回報(bào)——這些交易利用密切相關(guān)的資產(chǎn)之間的微小價(jià)差進(jìn)行套利。

With the onset of heightened volatility and market stress last March, these non-banks faced margin calls and funding difficulties. They went from being market stabilisers to amplifiers of market stress.

隨著去年3月波動(dòng)性及市場(chǎng)壓力加劇，這些非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)面臨追加保證金的要求以及融資困難。它們從市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定器變?yōu)榱耸袌?chǎng)壓力放大器。

Jon Cunliffe, Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability, has remarked that there is nothing new in seeing these so-called leveraged relative value trades unwind. It happened at Long-Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that had to be bailed out in 1998. What was different this time, he points out, was that the stress was systemic.

英國(guó)央行(Bank of England)負(fù)責(zé)金融穩(wěn)定的副行長(zhǎng)喬恩?坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)表示，這些所謂的使用杠桿的相對(duì)價(jià)值交易(leveraged relative value trades)出問題，并不是件新鮮事。1998年不得不接受紓困的對(duì)沖基金長(zhǎng)期資本管理公司(Long-Term Capital Management)就是一個(gè)先例。他指出，有所不同的是，這次的危機(jī)是系統(tǒng)性的。

As a consequence, the world’s hitherto most liquid market — US Treasuries — saw yields rise sharply while the bid-ask spread on 30-year US Treasury paper increased tenfold. The safest global haven lost its haven status until the US Federal Reserve came to the rescue, cutting the target range for the benchmark to near zero and committing to buy $500bn-plus of Treasury securities.

其結(jié)果是，迄今為止全球流動(dòng)性最強(qiáng)的市場(chǎng)——美國(guó)國(guó)債——收益率大幅上升，30年期美國(guó)國(guó)債的買賣價(jià)差增至原來的10倍。這種全球最安全的避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)已經(jīng)失去了其避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)地位，直至美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(US Federal Reserve)伸出援手，將基準(zhǔn)利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間降至接近零的水平，并承諾購(gòu)買逾5000億美元的美國(guó)國(guó)債。

What matters about this rescue for 2021 and beyond, argues Darrell Duffie of Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business, is that there is counterproductive moral hazard in relying on future Fed rescues of the Treasury market as an alternative to reforming the structure of the market so it can better handle large episodic future surges in demand for liquidity.

斯坦福商學(xué)院(Stanford Graduate School of Business)的達(dá)雷爾?達(dá)菲(Darrell Duffie)認(rèn)為，這次紓困對(duì)2021年及之后的重要性在于，這種做法——依賴美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)未來對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行救助，而不是改革該市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)、以便其能夠更好地應(yīng)對(duì)未來流動(dòng)性需求不定期的激增——存在道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，可能起反作用。

In a paper last year, he observed that such surges could be expected to arrive with greater frequency and magnitude, given both the historically high and growing ratio of federal debt to gross domestic product and the ballooning stock of outstanding Treasury securities relative to the capacity of dealer balance sheets.

達(dá)菲在去年的一篇論文中指出，鑒于美國(guó)聯(lián)邦債務(wù)與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)之比處于歷史高位且還在不斷上升，以及美國(guó)國(guó)債未償存量相對(duì)于交易商資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表容量在不斷膨脹，流動(dòng)性需求的這種激增預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)以更高的頻率以及更大的規(guī)模出現(xiàn)。

In other words, a financial system with a morally hazardous inbuilt incentive for excessive risk taking is now subject to a rolling stress test on an unprecedented scale.

換句話說，一個(gè)存在道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、因而有內(nèi)在動(dòng)機(jī)去冒過大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的的金融體系，現(xiàn)在正面臨著規(guī)?？涨暗闹芷谛詨毫y(cè)試。

The financial fragility revealed in March 2020 highlights a fundamental change in the structure of the financial system. For much of the postwar period, it was all about channelling savings to borrowers, facilitating payments and helping people and corporations share risk.

2020年3月暴露出的金融脆弱性，突顯出金融體系結(jié)構(gòu)的根本性變化。在戰(zhàn)后的大部分時(shí)間中，金融體系的主要功能曾是將儲(chǔ)蓄輸送給借款人、為支付提供便利，以及幫助個(gè)人和企業(yè)分擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Yet, since the deregulatory thrust that began in the 1970s, a growing share of financial intermediation — borrowing and lending — takes the form of collateralised repurchase agreements or repos where cash is exchanged for high-quality assets such as US government debt. At the same time, much of the risk-sharing function is conducted in multitrillion-dollar derivatives markets.

然而，自上世紀(jì)70年代開始放松監(jiān)管以來，越來越多的金融中介活動(dòng)——包括借入與貸出——采取了質(zhì)押式回購(gòu)協(xié)議（簡(jiǎn)稱repo）的形式，即用現(xiàn)金換取美國(guó)政府債務(wù)等優(yōu)質(zhì)資產(chǎn)。同時(shí)，價(jià)值數(shù)萬億美元的衍生品市場(chǎng)承擔(dān)了很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)功能。

Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, points out that in this more market-based framework, the provision of liquidity depends heavily on wholesale markets. Here the players — often shadow banks — are leveraged and part of complex networks of collateralised lending relationships. Shadow banks, he adds, mainly repackage and recycle existing savings. Their funding model is based on short-term repos and they are much more exposed to interest rate fluctuations than banks.

跨境資本(CrossBorder Capital)董事總經(jīng)理邁克爾?豪厄爾(Michael Howell)指出，在這種更大程度上基于市場(chǎng)的框架下，流動(dòng)性的供給嚴(yán)重依賴批發(fā)市場(chǎng)。這些市場(chǎng)的參與者——往往是影子銀行——都背負(fù)杠桿，且屬于復(fù)雜的抵押借貸關(guān)系網(wǎng)的一部分。他補(bǔ)充稱，影子銀行做的主要是重新打包和回收現(xiàn)有儲(chǔ)蓄。它們的融資模式基于短期回購(gòu)，比銀行更容易受到利率波動(dòng)的影響。

It is a more opaque, fast-moving financial world that poses huge challenges for regulators. As for the financial system itself, the big future challenge will be how to refinance an ever-growing mountain of debt when so many banks and non-banks have flawed or constrained balance sheets. The conclusion must be that central banks’ market stabilising activities will be with us for longer than many now expect.

影子銀行是一個(gè)更加不透明、瞬息萬變的金融世界，給監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)帶來了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。至于金融體系本身，它將在未來面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)在于，在如此多銀行和非銀行機(jī)構(gòu)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表存在缺陷或受到限制的情況下，如何為其日益堆積的債務(wù)進(jìn)行再融資。結(jié)論肯定是，央行穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)的種種舉措，將在長(zhǎng)于許多人現(xiàn)在預(yù)期的時(shí)間里繼續(xù)存在。

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劉紀(jì)鵬：中國(guó)政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院院長(zhǎng)、MBA教育中心主任、二級(jí)教授、博士生導(dǎo)師、高級(jí)研究員、高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師、注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師。

孟令星：中國(guó)政法大學(xué)商學(xué)院講師、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清華大學(xué)商法學(xué)博士、中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)法學(xué)博士后、美國(guó)哈佛大學(xué)進(jìn)修學(xué)者。

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