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講座題目：Decarbonization Scenarios and Carbon Reduction Potential for China’s Road Transportation by 2060

報告人：盧全瑩 北京工業(yè)大學經濟與管理學院

講座時間：2022年12月30日(周五) 12:15-13:30

騰訊會議 ID：127-744-947

內容摘要

This paper constructed a high-frequency carbon emission database of China’s road traffic across cities based on high-frequency passenger vehicle sales data and motor vehicle real-time monitoring big data. The study found that although the number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) increased four times from 2016 to 2019, their proportion in the total number of motor vehicles was still small, and the average annual growth rate of road passenger traffic emissions was still as high as 20.5%. The emission reduction effect of transportation electrification is significant, but the currently limited proliferation of electric vehicles restricts their potential. Assuming that the electricity consumed by electric vehicles comes from thermal power, the current emission reduction contribution of transportation electrification is only 0.6%, and it could be increased to 1.4% if the electricity came from clean energy. Transportation electrification and total motor quantity control are the factors that contribute most to emission reduction, with the highest contributions in 2060 reaching 33% and 66%, respectively. The continued inertia of fuel vehicles in the road transportation system will slow the path of the road transport sector toward carbon neutrality.

主講人簡介

盧全瑩，北京工業(yè)大學經濟與管理學院校聘教授、博士生導師。中國科學院數(shù)學與系統(tǒng)科學研究院特別研究助理（博士后），中國科學院大學經濟與管理學院博士。主要研究方向為能源環(huán)境經濟與政策分析、經濟分析與預測，現(xiàn)已在Nature子刊、Energy Economics、Energy Policy、Transportation Research Part D、Quantitative Finance等國際知名期刊發(fā)表論文30余篇；出版專著3部；多篇參與撰寫的政策研究報告獲得領導人肯定性批示；主持國家自然科學基金等課題2項；先后獲5項省部級獎。